Friday, 1 July 2011

June Analysis

Not a great start to July today, with three selections missing the target. We'll try to update results from today tomorrow night, or if not certainly a full review on Sunday.

For now let's look back at the month of June. It was a fairly frustrating month all told, every time we seemed to be picking up a slight head of steam things were pegged back. In the first part of the month we had many second placed finishes, and ended with 14 in all from our 75 picks (nearly one in five). Still, despite the difficulties we still managed a profit, the fifth month in a row which we've achieved that.

So let's take a look at the figures.

Bets: 75
Wins: 10 (13.33%)
2nds: 14 (18.66%)
3rds: 5 (6.66%)
Placed total: 29 (38.67%)
Average odds taken: 7.95/1 (exactly the same as last month!)
Average SP: 6.91/1
Average win odds: 7.37/1
Profit/Loss: +2.7pts
Return On Investment: +3.33%

This month we had six two point selections, none of which won, including two which finished second at 16/1 and 14/1. Small margins! Our "edge" (strike rate over required strike rate at the odds) was actually 11.57%, but because of the 2pt selections losing our ROI reduces to just +3.3%. We have had lots of success from our two point selections in the last few months so no reason to worry about that at all.

The million dollar question - did we beat SP - is a conclusive yes, which is the single most important stat of all. To beat it by 1.04pts on average with every selection is very pleasing.

Our win rate dropped just below our target 15% - at 13.33% - but one more win would have pushed it to a shade under 15% and two more wins would have pushed us to 16% - again those small margins!

As we're half the year in (how quickly does time fly) - it feels like a good time to relay the above stats into year to date figures so far so here they are:

Bets: 425
Wins: 63 (14.82%)
2nds: 54 (12.71%)
3rds: 42 (9.88%)
Placed total: 159 (37.41%)
Average odds taken: 7.94/1
Average SP: 7.025/1
Average win odds: 8.04/1
Profit/Loss: +205.3pts
Return On Investment: +43.59%

A very good six months so far, and as long as we keep beating those SPs on a consistent basis then there should be no reason why things shouldn't continue to progress.

Let's see what July brings!

Thanks for reading, have a great weekend.

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